The suspension of the historic Indus Waters Treaty by India, following a devastating militant attack in Indian-administered Kashmir, has once again spotlighted the fragile dynamics between two nuclear-armed neighbors, India and Pakistan.
Signed in 1960 with World Bank mediation, the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT) has been a rare beacon of cooperation amidst decades of hostilities. It divided six rivers of the Indus basin — granting India control over the Ravi, Beas, and Sutlej, while Pakistan was assigned the Indus, Jhelum, and Chenab rivers. Despite surviving two wars and countless skirmishes, the treaty now stands suspended — a historic first initiated by the upstream country, India.
Can India Realistically Block Indus Waters?
While the rhetoric surrounding India’s move sounds formidable, experts agree that immediately stopping the flow of water into Pakistan is practically impossible. India’s current infrastructure — largely composed of “run-of-the-river” hydropower projects — lacks the massive reservoirs needed to block or divert the massive water volumes of the western rivers, especially during monsoon seasons.
However, India’s suspension of the treaty signals a strategic pivot. Without the treaty’s obligations, India could accelerate dam construction, modify existing projects, and withhold hydrological data previously shared with Pakistan — a crucial tool for flood forecasting and irrigation planning in Pakistan’s water-dependent economy.
In the dry seasons, when water scarcity intensifies, even slight disruptions could have outsized impacts on Pakistan’s agriculture and hydropower. Experts warn that over time, this could become a significant lever of pressure.
Weaponising Water: A New Front in Hostilities?
There is growing concern about the potential militarisation of water. While India may be constrained from using rivers as “water bombs” — sudden releases that could flood Pakistan — it could now flush silt from dams without prior warning, creating damaging surges downstream.
Such a move, while avoiding large-scale flooding on Indian territory, could nevertheless harm Pakistan’s fragile irrigation systems, fisheries, and infrastructure, adding another layer of volatility to the already tense relationship.
Echoes of Past Retaliations
India’s actions must also be viewed against the grim backdrop of recent violence in Kashmir. The brutal attack in Pahalgam on April 23, 2025 — where 26 tourists, including newlyweds and local guides, were gunned down — has deeply wounded the nation’s psyche.
The assault, targeting civilians enjoying the serenity of the Himalayas, has stoked public outrage and prompted swift retaliatory steps from Delhi — including expelling Pakistani diplomats, sealing border crossings, and suspending the Indus treaty.
Given India’s past responses to terrorist attacks — surgical strikes after Uri in 2016, and air raids after Pulwama in 2019 — analysts predict a strong, calibrated military reaction may be inevitable. Both nations have historically shown a tendency to retaliate forcefully while stopping short of full-blown war, but the risk of miscalculation remains dangerously high.
The Bigger Picture: Water Security and Regional Stability
Water tensions between India and Pakistan are set against a broader backdrop of hydropolitical challenges. China’s control over the Brahmaputra, another vital river system originating in Tibet, underscores how critical upstream dominance is becoming in South Asia’s geopolitics.
As climate change accelerates glacial melt and alters river flows, water is poised to become not just a developmental issue, but a potential flashpoint in the region’s security architecture.
India’s suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty could mark the beginning of a new era where water becomes as potent a symbol of national security as borders and missiles.
While India may not immediately “stop” the Indus rivers, its current trajectory signals a decisive shift toward reasserting control over its share of the basin’s waters. In the short term, the move may deepen mistrust and heighten tensions. In the long term, it sets a precedent that could redefine water politics in South Asia for decades to come.
As the families of the victims in Kashmir mourn, and strategic circles in Delhi and Islamabad calculate next moves, one thing is certain: the rivers that have sustained civilizations for millennia are now entangled in the complex politics of war and peace.
