In a historic turn of events, Myanmar’s Arakan Army (AA) has achieved a major milestone by seizing control of the 170-mile border with Bangladesh, marking the first time that the military junta has lost complete control of an international boundary. This significant development underscores the growing strength of opposition forces in Rakhine state and signals a critical blow to the military regime under General Min Aung Hlaing.
Victory in Rakhine: A Symbol of Resistance
The decisive victory followed months of intense combat around the border guard police unit in Maungdaw, a town near the Naf River. Footage released this week revealed the surrender of junta soldiers, waving improvised white flags and retreating in defeat. The culmination of this battle marks a turning point in Myanmar’s civil conflict, which has intensified since the military’s 2021 coup that plunged the country into chaos.
“This is a monumental step for the Arakan Army,” said Phil Robertson, Asia Director of Human Rights Watch. “It’s a significant development not just for Rakhine but for the broader resistance movement across Myanmar.”
The Arakan Army’s efforts are part of a broader coalition of resistance groups aiming to dismantle the junta’s authoritarian grip. The conflict has already resulted in the deaths of over 5,300 civilians and displaced approximately 3.5 million people, according to United Nations estimates.
Implications for the Junta and Other Ethnic Groups
The AA’s triumph in Rakhine not only cripples the junta’s hold in the region but also alleviates pressure on other ethnic groups engaged in similar struggles. David Eubank, founder of the Free Burma Rangers, highlighted the broader ramifications of this victory, noting that it allows other resistance movements to regroup and sustain their efforts.
“This success boosts morale and resources for allied ethnic groups across Myanmar,” Eubank explained. “It forces the military to divert troops and resources, weakening their control in other contested areas.”
Humanitarian Crisis in Rakhine
While the AA’s victory is a strategic milestone, Rakhine state remains mired in a severe humanitarian crisis. Blockades, ongoing clashes, and disrupted commerce have pushed the region towards economic collapse, with famine projected as early as mid-2025. The United Nations Development Programme has issued dire warnings about worsening conditions, as flooding in September displaced millions and exacerbated the humanitarian toll.
Rohingya Relations: A Complex Future
One of the most pressing challenges for the AA’s administration in Rakhine lies in addressing the plight of the Rohingya, a Muslim minority group that has faced systematic persecution and genocide at the hands of Myanmar’s military. Roughly 600,000 Rohingya remain in the state, with relations between them and the AA strained by years of mistrust and conflict.
Tensions escalated in August when reports surfaced of drone attacks targeting fleeing Rohingya refugees. The AA has denied involvement, labeling such claims as propaganda but remains critical of certain Rohingya factions for alleged collaboration with the military.
The Role of China and Regional Dynamics
While the AA’s victory boosts resistance efforts, analysts caution that broader outcomes in Myanmar’s civil war hinge on external factors, particularly China’s influence. As a neighboring superpower, China’s interest in Myanmar’s stability has prompted it to mediate ceasefires among resistance groups. The AA’s alliance with other armed factions, including the Three Brotherhood Alliance, is under close scrutiny by Beijing.
Richard Horsey, a senior analyst at the International Crisis Group, emphasized the pivotal role of China. “Beijing’s shifting stance towards Myanmar could redefine the conflict,” he said. “While China is wary of fully endorsing the junta, it remains apprehensive about the uncertainty that might follow its collapse.”
What Lies Ahead?
The Arakan Army’s control of Rakhine’s border is a remarkable achievement, but the path forward is fraught with uncertainty. Establishing governance, addressing humanitarian needs, and rebuilding trust with minority groups like the Rohingya will be critical challenges. Meanwhile, the broader conflict in Myanmar continues, with resistance movements drawing strength from this pivotal victory. As international attention focuses on Rakhine, the outcome will likely shape the trajectory of the nation’s ongoing struggle for democracy and justice.
